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The Peak Oil Crisis: Labor Day 2006

What a difference a month makes. Just four weeks ago Hezbollah and the Israelis were engaged in the heaviest fighting the world has seen since the US overran Iraq.

When the fighting started, oil prices jumped on concerns that oil exports might be affected. In July there were fears US motorists might draw down the country’s gasoline reserves during the summer driving binge. Soon thereafter, BP noticed that some of its Prudhoe oil pipelines were rusting through, threatening an important share of the US’s West Coast oil supply. Finally, the hurricane season was about to begin.

( Read on )

Peak Oil Forecasters Win Converts on Wall Street to $200 Crude

On a sweltering Tuesday in mid-July, in the fields outside Pisa, Italy, Willem Kadijk scribbles notes as a ragtag troupe of doomsayers predict the end of the Oil Age.

With his shaved head, jeans and sandals, Kadijk, 48, blends into a crowd gathered under a white tent to hear of the coming calamity. The death of cheap, abundant crude, the forecasters warn, might unleash war and plunge the world into a second Great Depression.

( Read on )

End of an era

Global demand for oil will one day overtake our ability to produce it cheaply, and prices will skyrocket as half the world's easily extractable oil is gone. But when? A growing number think soon - if it hasn't already happened.

( Read on )

Absence of an ill wind blows some good

GLOBAL warming's failure so far to produce a repeat of last year's serial hurricane assault and battery of the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico is the swing factor in the suddenly soft price of oil.

( Read on )

Peak Oil and the Fall of the Soviet Union

After over 70 years in power, the mighty Soviet Empire unexpectedly vanished overnight and almost the entire communist tradition there dissolved. Was the cause of this cataclysmic collapse really the result of communist inefficiency and U.S. president Ronald Reagan’s Cold War military build up? Or was there an oil crisis that shocked the Soviet system? Or if Marxist-Leninist communism was so inefficient, then why did it last for over 70 years, through World War II and early Cold War tensions that were arguably also strong enough to have toppled it?

( Read on )

When oil dries up

Richard Heinberg is an unlikely latter-day Jeremiah. The contrast between this quietly spoken Californian college professor and accomplished classical violinist and his explosive message couldn't be more marked.

( Read on )

ASPO 5. Skrebowski tells us there’s 1,500 days until the Peak, & closing thoughts on ASPO 5.

Chris is the editor or Petroleum Review and is a well known speaker on peak oil. He also uses very detailed Powerpoint presentations which he zips through so fast that comprehensive note taking is nigh on impossible! You can find his powerpoint here, which is well worth a read, as he is a challenge to even the most dedicated note taker! Here’s what I got down from his talk, for which I make no claims of completeness (it was very hot in that tent!)

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US vs. Iran - Is An Attack Inevitable?

We are being mentally prepared for what is about to come: a devastating war with Iran. This war has been planned a long time ago and has been delayed by the unexpected insurgency in Iraq (for full details read "Why Iraq and Now Iran"). This war, in one form or other, is "almost" inevitable. The current US administration has climbed on a tiger, and in fear of being eaten, doesn’t know how to get-off.

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Nigeria: Cars in Country to Run on Natural Gas

The Nigerian Gas Company (NGC) declared, last Friday, that within the next twelve months, cars used in Nigeria would start running on Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) in view of the escalating cost of petrol, saying it has sent some of its staff to Argentina to be trained on how to establish and run NGC stations.

( Read on )

Wind turbine makers scramble to meet demand

U.S. installations projected to grow by 50% by the end of next year
Rising prices for oil and natural gas fuel demand for wind power.

A team of eight workers scrambled to assemble the 185th windmill in the largest wind farm in the northeastern United States. They had 10 more to build and wanted to wrap up the job by Labor Day.

( Read on )

Think Local, Think Small

At Black Mountain, North Carolina, there is a developing ecovillage known as Earthaven that exemplifies Catherine Austin Fitts’ Solari economic model to a tee, though the community has never consciously worked directly from it. It is usually assumed that an intentional community such as this is a commune, but that is not so in the case of Earthaven. Instead, what I will call a “natural-capitalist” model has been embraced where investment in the community is encouraged through equity. One community member calls this “capitalism with a heart.”

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ASPO 5. Dennis Meadows - Peak Oil and Limits to Growth

Dennis Meadows. Peak Oil and Limits to Growth. Wednesday 19th July 2006.

The Fifth International Conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO-5) July 18-19 2006 in San Rossore, Italy.

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Peak Oil and Bakhtiari's 4 Phases of Transition

IN A RECENT ARTICLE entitled "Nothing Like Business as Usual," published Aug. 11, 2006, in Whiskey & Gunpowder, I outlined the views on Peak Oil of a man named Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari. Dr. Bakhtiari is a former senior energy expert who spent his long career, which started in 1971, employed by the National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC) of Tehran, Iran. During the course of his employment with NIOC, he held many important positions of trust and responsibility.

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Aust urged to reduce oil dependence

An American energy expert is pushing for Australia to sign up to an international protocol to reduce its dependence on petroleum.

The Oil Depletion Protocol calls for nations to reduce their petroleum production and importation by 2.6 per cent each year - and gradually wean themselves off oil altogether.

( Read on )

ASPO 5. Jeremy Leggett Intertwines Peak Oil and Climate Change.

Jeremy Leggett. Peak Oil, climate change, and the daunting arithmetic of carbon fuels.

The Fifth International Conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO-5) July 18-19 2006 in San Rossore, Italy.

( Read on )

Confronting Today's Oil Crisis in the U.S.

With little doubt today the United States is being confronted with a crisis of major proportions. As world oil demand keeps growing and oil supplies are curtailed or threatened by political turmoil in the Mideast, world oil prices could well continue to escalate upwards at an alarming rate. This would portend a major increase in transportation costs with serious economic repercussions throughout the country. The question is what can we do NOW?

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Decaying pipes risk 20% gains to energy prices

BP Plc’s shutdown of the largest US oil field may be the first of many, as decaying pipelines threaten to add 20% to energy prices in the next decade.

"We’ll look back on this event as the Pearl Harbor Day in energy,’’ said Matthew Simmons, chairman of energy investment bank Simmons & Co International in Houston. The chance that the leaks and corrosion found at Prudhoe Bay by BP, Europe’s second- largest oil company, are an isolated occurrence is "zero,’’ said Simmons, who’s writing a book on aging oil infrastructure.

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Ethanol could consume two-thirds of Nebraska's corn crop in five years

Nebraska Governor Dave Heineman last week proclaimed September Renewable Fuels Awareness Month. Nebraska Corn Board Executive Director Don Hutchens says the proclamation comes as the state’s ethanol production is expected to surge over the next five years.

( Read on )

Betting billions on liquefied natural gas

An estimated $30 billion a year is pouring into developing liquefied natural gas.

Despite concerns over the safety and the cost of importing it, analysts say the fuel will make up a larger and larger share of America's energy mix and may help prevent seasonal natural gas price spikes.

( Read on )

Commodities: Worry over Caribbean storm drives up natural gas

NEW YORK Worries that a tropical storm front approaching the Caribbean could strengthen and head toward the Gulf of Mexico, where about a fifth of all U.S. natural gas is produced, drove gas prices higher on Thursday.

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Bracks urged to think ahead as 'oil runs out'

THE Bracks Government has been challenged to establish an office of oil vulnerability to assess the impact of declining global oil production and prepare for petrol shortages.

Bruce Robinson, convener of the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, has also called for higher fuel taxes.

( Read on )

DOE predicts gasoline shortages

Gasoline shortages and even higher prices loom, a new government report says, and it will take decades and trillions of dollars to replace American dependence on foreign oil.

The U.S. Department of Energy report directly addressed the concept of peak oil and how to deal with it. Peak oil means oil production is maximized and supply goes down from that point forward. Coupled with a surge in demand from countries like China and India, some energy experts say this could be a problem for America's economy.

( Read on )

Letters, faxes, and e-mail

Given the fact that planet Earth is finite, it follows that the oil under the Earth's surface is finite as well. The point will come, if it hasn't already, when half the world's oil will have been pumped.

When this point occurs, it will become more difficult and expensive to pump the remaining oil, causing the price of oil to go up. This will signal the point of peak oil production, and each year the amount of oil produced will be less than the year before. At the same time, the demand for oil from developing countries such as China and India will be increasing.

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Simmons-Kunstler interview

Matt Simmons and Jim Kunstler were interviewed on November 1, 2005 by Glenn Mitchell on KERA 90.1, the local PBS station in Dallas, Texas.

( Transcript here )

A False Sense of Insecurity?

DETERMINING HOW TO respond to the terrorist challenge has become a major public policy issue in the United States over the last three years. It has been discussed endlessly, many lives have been changed, a couple of wars have been waged, and huge sums of money have been spent -- often after little contemplation -- to deal with the problem.

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Helping cities, towns and municipalities adapt to peak oil

As a member of the Portland Peak Oil Task Force, I am excited to see the amazing progress our team is making. The twelve members of the Task Force come from various backgrounds, including land use planners, social workers, business executives, farmers, environmental experts, and more.

( Read on )

When oil dries up

Oil is close to running out, and chaos will follow, according to a US expert. Nick Galvin reports.

RICHARD HEINBERG is an unlikely latter-day Jeremiah. The contrast between this quietly spoken Californian college professor and accomplished classical violinist and his explosive message couldn't be more marked.

( Read on )

Oil crisis by 2010

WORLD oil production will peak in just 1500 days. After that, oil shortages will force massive changes to our lifestyle and business, experts have predicted.

( Read on )

One stock market analyst speaks her mind

Despite the recent rally, some stock market analysts are still concerned about a possible economic slowdown that could lead to a recession. You can count Ms. Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist for Charles Schwab & Co. Inc., in that camp.

( read on )

Peak Oil Passnotes: Peak Pipelines

The venerable and entertaining Matthew Simmons of Simmons International investment banking has managed to tweak the ear of the media once again this week. This time however it is not those nasty Saudi Arabians about which Simmons has written so much. Instead it is about pipelines.

( Read on )

Peak Oil prophecies

Lately, I've been freaking out over Peak Oil. For the uninitiated, Peak Oilers envision a fitful collapse of our hyper-industrial society, when crude oil passes its peak supply arc and slowly declines as a resource. As the supply of cheap energy sputters out of existence, Peak Oil adherents imagine resource wars, population die-offs, and eventually, an agrarian society surrounded by urban and suburban ruins. Essentially, it's a progressive dystopia, mirroring the gloom and doom of the Christian Left Behind series of books. Until recently, it seemed like more an environmentalist, Luddite revenge fantasy than an accurate image of the near future, but with gas prices surging, it doesn't seem so far-fetched anymore.

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The Peak Oil Crisis: Conserving Light

This week the UN is to come up with a sanctions resolution that will keep Iran's two million barrels a day of exports flowing and at the same time convince Tehran to give up on uninspected nuclear enrichment.

Crafting such a resolution is likely to take some doing as the Chinese, who are more concerned about losing oil imports than whether or not Tehran comes up with an atomic bomb, have to sign off on any sanctions plan.

( Read on )

Age and neglect meet in global oil pipelines

PARIS BP's shutdown of the largest U.S. oil field may be the first of many, as decaying pipelines threaten to add to already soaring energy prices in the next decade.

( Read on )

Why Are Americans So Angry?

I have been involved in politics for over 30 years and have never seen the American people so angry. It’s not unusual to sense a modest amount of outrage, but it seems the anger today is unusually intense and quite possibly worse than ever. It’s not easily explained, but I have some thoughts on this matter. Generally, anger and frustration among people are related to economic conditions; bread and butter issues. Yet today, according to government statistics, things are going well. We have low unemployment, low inflation, more homeowners than ever before, and abundant leisure with abundant luxuries. Even the poor have cell phones, televisions, and computers. Public school is free, and anyone can get free medical care at any emergency room in the country. Almost all taxes are paid by the top 50% of income earners. The lower 50% pay essentially no income taxes, yet general dissatisfaction and anger are commonplace. The old slogan “It’s the economy, stupid,” just doesn’t seem to explain things.

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Waving the Warning Flags

The eternal truth in the investment world is that every asset class goes
through boom and bust cycles, which typically last for several years.
However, it is ironic that toward the end of any bull-market, when the
risk is extreme, optimism toward the booming asset-class is usually at a
record-high. On the other hand, during the final phase of a bear-market,
when the downside risk is limited, the asset that is selling at a huge
discount is always neglected and hated by the public. The reason for this
irrational behavior is that most people find it hard to foresee and accept
change. The conditions that have been prevalent for a long time are
considered to be permanent, and investment decisions are made accordingly.

( Read on )

What pipeline problem?

Lost in the fallout from BP's shut-down at Prudhoe Bay is the fact that the system is getting better, and oil supplies are growing, says Fortune's Jon Birger.

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An Open Letter to my Friends in the Media

"According to OPEC, in June 2006 Russia extracted 9.236 million barrels of oil, which is 46,000 barrels more than Saudi Arabia. The statistics also showed that Russian production in the first half of this year increased to 235.8 million tons, a year-on-year improvement of 2.3 percent."

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Oil output set to peak, but no fuel shortage-UBS

Oil production looks set to peak in the mid-to-late 2020s, but the decline will be offset as high fuel costs accelerate the quest for other energy sources, notably natural gas, UBS said in a study published on Wednesday.

( Read on )

ASPO 5. Colin Campbell Puts the Oil Age Into Perspective…

The first proper speech of ASPO 5 was by Dr. Colin Campbell, and was called ‘Peak Oil in Perspective’. Here is an overview of what he said.

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Axis of Appeasement – The Inconvenient Truth

On January 20, 2002, President George W. Bush in his State of the Union Address stated:
States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. They could provide these arms to terrorists, giving them the means to match their hatred. They could attack our allies or attempt to blackmail the United States. In any of these cases, the price of indifference would be catastrophic.

Today, we are seeing the allies of the United States possible becoming the “The Axis of Appeasement.” The question remains to see if the allies joined for freedom and liberty will support a battle against the forces of evil.

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