Friday, March 03, 2006

The Brinkmanship Of Energy Geopolitics

"It is thus probably no overstatement to say that the Russian campaign has been won in the space of two weeks." - German Chief of General Staff Franz Halder, July 3, 1941

"The whole situation makes it increasingly plain that we have underestimated the Russian colossus." - General Halder, Aug 11, 1941.

Never underestimate how quickly an overstretched, embattled army can turn the tables in a war zone. In the process, it can induce a reordering in the global power structure by simply exiting. Yes, the Persian Gulf crisis can indeed escalate into an extreme, maximalist scenario. The decisive factor - as always - depends on the energy reservoir of the protagonists. In this case the question of 'energy' takes a more literal interpretation.

( Full story here )

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